Vibe-Coded Fantasy Football Projections

September 5, 2026

One of the nice things about AI coding agents is that they let me take on side projects that previously wouldn’t have been worth the effort. Small-scale data science problems are an especially good use case because you can just give an agent a task and tell it to think up and run its own experiments,¹ knowing you can actually measure and verify the results.

With that in mind, I present my fantasy football projections for the 2026 season. The results are…decent. In fact, they beat consensus alone by about 2.5% on average point-prediction error in historical tests,² although there’s almost certainly some overfitting to the validation set from trying so many things. They produce some interesting zags. For instance, my model loves Ashton Jeanty. He was its top-ranked player before his injury. Overall, I expect they’re basically a wash versus just sticking to consensus.³

But to put my money where my mouth is, I even used these in my own draft.⁴ We’ll see how it goes!

Scoring Teams 1 QB / 2 RB / 2 WR / 1 TE / 1 flex

Hide fringe players

392 players

Projected 2026 season points, league-adjusted value and PPR market ranks

1	Amon-Ra St. Brown DET	WR	274	+117	6	+5	6.5	+6
2	Ja'Marr Chase CIN Q	WR	269	+111	1	-1	3.9	+2
3	Christian McCaffrey SF Q	RB	261	+109	9	+6	6.5	+4
4	Bijan Robinson ATL	RB	259	+108	4	0	2.3	-2
5	Puka Nacua LA Q	WR	265	+107	3	-2	2.8	-2
6	Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	WR	264	+107	5	-1	5.5	0
7	Ashton Jeanty LV Q	RB	255	+103	28	+21	20.5	+14
8	Jahmyr Gibbs DET	RB	254	+102	2	-6	1.5	-6
9	James Cook BUF	RB	249	+97	13	+4	—	—
10	De'Von Achane MIA	RB	246	+95	19	+9	10.1	+0
11	Jonathan Taylor IND	RB	245	+94	10	-1	7.4	-4
12	CeeDee Lamb DAL	WR	246	+88	7	-5	10.2	-2
13	Josh Allen BUF	QB	328	+87	26	+13	33.3	+20
14	Drake London ATL	WR	242	+85	11	-3	12.9	-1
15	Chase Brown CIN	RB	235	+84	15	0	13.1	-2
16	Trey McBride ARI	TE	212	+80	17	+1	29.1	+13
17	Justin Jefferson MIN	WR	237	+79	8	-9	11.7	-5
18	Saquon Barkley PHI	RB	228	+76	22	+4	18.7	+1
19	Derrick Henry BAL	RB	228	+76	37	+18	16.4	-3
20	Omarion Hampton LAC	RB	223	+71	24	+4	22.5	+3
21	Breece Hall NYJ Q	RB	218	+66	39	+18	32.7	+12
22	Nico Collins HOU	WR	220	+63	14	-8	21.3	-1
23	Kyren Williams LA	RB	212	+61	42	+19	31.7	+9
24	A.J. Brown NE	WR	218	+61	12	-12	16.9	-7
25	Chris Olave NO	WR	217	+59	16	-9	19.3	-6
26	Kenneth Walker III KC Q	RB	205	+54	25	-1	—	—
27	Drake Maye NE	QB	292	+51	38	+11	51.6	+25
28	Jeremiyah Love ARI Q	RB	200	+48	41	+13	27.6	0
29	Jalen Hurts PHI	QB	289	+47	57	+28	78.7	+50
30	George Pickens DAL	WR	204	+47	18	-12	19.7	-10
31	Tetairoa McMillan CAR	WR	203	+46	34	+3	31.4	+0
32	Javonte Williams DAL	RB	197	+45	43	+11	36.3	+4
33	Zay Flowers BAL Q	WR	203	+45	29	-4	25.6	-7
34	Malik Nabers NYG Q	WR	203	+45	23	-11	26.6	-7
35	Brock Bowers LV	TE	175	+43	20	-15	34.6	0
36	DeVonta Smith PHI	WR	199	+41	21	-15	29.4	-7
37	Lamar Jackson BAL	QB	283	+41	31	-6	57.2	+20
38	Tyler Warren IND Q	TE	169	+38	52	+14	65.4	+27
39	Ladd McConkey LAC	WR	194	+37	33	-6	37.9	-1
40	Emeka Egbuka TB Q	WR	192	+35	40	0	35.5	-4
41	Colston Loveland CHI	TE	166	+34	35	-6	55.2	+14
42	Caleb Williams CHI	QB	276	+34	63	+21	88.3	+46
43	Travis Etienne NO	RB	185	+34	44	+1	37.9	-5
44	Garrett Wilson NYJ	WR	191	+33	30	-14	27.1	-17
45	Joe Burrow CIN	QB	274	+33	45	0	56.0	+11
46	Kyle Pitts ATL	TE	163	+31	77	+31	—	—
47	D'Andre Swift CHI	RB	181	+30	50	+3	44.7	-2
48	Harold Fannin Jr. CLE	TE	161	+30	73	+25	75.0	+27
49	Cam Skattebo NYG	RB	181	+29	56	+7	40.6	-8
50	Rashee Rice KC i	WR	186	+28	27	-23	16.4	-34
51	Tee Higgins CIN Q	WR	183	+26	36	-15	35.7	-15
52	Travis Kelce KC	TE	157	+26	94	+42	107.1	+55
53	Brian Thomas Jr. JAX i	WR	179	+21	79	+26	72.6	+20
54	Justin Herbert LAC	QB	262	+21	69	+15	104.7	+51
55	Sam LaPorta DET Q	TE	152	+20	83	+28	112.0	+57
56	Quinshon Judkins CLE	RB	171	+19	62	+6	50.9	-5
57	George Kittle SF Q	TE	151	+19	97	+40	93.4	+36
58	Jameson Williams DET	WR	176	+18	51	-7	45.3	-13
59	Terry McLaurin WAS	WR	175	+18	47	-12	48.5	-10
60	Jaylen Waddle DEN	WR	174	+17	32	-28	44.4	-16
61	DJ Moore BUF	WR	174	+16	49	-12	47.6	-13
62	Bucky Irving TB	RB	168	+16	55	-7	46.3	-16
63	Rome Odunze CHI	WR	173	+16	58	-5	54.4	-9
64	Jayden Daniels WAS	QB	256	+15	53	-11	73.6	+10
65	Bo Nix DEN	QB	256	+14	93	+28	112.3	+47
66	DK Metcalf PIT Q	WR	171	+14	78	+12	66.6	+1
67	Patrick Mahomes KC Q	QB	255	+13	100	+33	103.7	+37
68	TreVeyon Henderson NE Q	RB	164	+12	68	0	64.5	-3
69	Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI	WR	169	+12	67	-2	63.6	-5
70	David Montgomery HOU	RB	163	+11	60	-10	56.4	-14
71	Carnell Tate TEN Q	WR	167	+9	66	-5	79.6	+9
72	Courtland Sutton DEN	WR	165	+8	84	+12	61.1	-11
73	Wan'Dale Robinson TEN Q	WR	163	+5	82	+9	86.5	+14
74	Jake Ferguson DAL	TE	137	+5	118	+44	133.2	+59
75	Davante Adams LA	WR	162	+5	48	-27	41.8	-33
76	Trevor Lawrence JAX	QB	246	+4	74	-2	92.4	+16
77	Michael Wilson ARI	WR	161	+3	86	+9	74.7	-2
78	Luther Burden III CHI Q	WR	160	+3	46	-32	54.2	-24
79	Dalton Kincaid BUF	TE	134	+2	110	+31	147.1	+68
80	Alec Pierce IND Q	WR	159	+1	98	+18	69.7	-10
81	Jaxson Dart NYG	QB	242	0	92	+11	119.0	+38
81	Michael Pittman PIT Q	WR	157	0	80	-1	76.4	-5
81	Jadarian Price SEA	RB	152	0	65	-16	73.6	-7
81	Tucker Kraft GB Q	TE	132	0	76	-5	101.4	+20
85	Christian Watson GB	WR	157	0	54	-31	58.1	-27
86	RJ Harvey DEN	RB	151	-1	90	+4	95.4	+9
87	Brock Purdy SF	QB	241	-1	91	+4	86.5	0
88	Jared Goff DET	QB	241	-1	104	+16	102.1	+14
89	Juwan Johnson NO	TE	130	-2	130	+41	152.7	+64
90	Bhayshul Tuten JAX	RB	148	-4	64	-26	54.1	-36
91	Dallas Goedert PHI	TE	128	-4	122	+31	111.9	+21
92	Mike Evans SF Q	WR	154	-4	59	-33	54.7	-37
93	Tony Pollard TEN	RB	147	-4	81	-12	69.3	-24
94	Jaylen Warren PIT	RB	147	-5	72	-22	62.8	-31
95	Rhamondre Stevenson NE	RB	146	-6	70	-25	62.1	-33
96	Matthew Stafford LA	QB	236	-6	105	+9	75.5	-20
97	Quentin Johnston LAC	WR	150	-7	89	-8	95.4	-2
98	Parker Washington JAX	WR	149	-8	61	-37	63.2	-35
99	Hunter Henry NE	TE	123	-9	156	+57	159.8	+61
100	Dalton Schultz HOU	TE	121	-11	152	+52	161.9	+62
101	Mark Andrews BAL	TE	121	-11	132	+31	131.5	+31
102	Jordan Love GB	QB	230	-11	116	+14	142.5	+41
103	Chuba Hubbard CAR Q	RB	139	-13	99	-4	83.4	-20
104	Kenny Gainwell TB	RB	138	-13	96	-8	91.4	-13
105	Dak Prescott DAL	QB	227	-15	75	-30	65.2	-40
106	Kyler Murray MIN	QB	226	-16	113	+7	134.1	+28
107	Rachaad White WAS Q	RB	136	-16	112	+5	116.5	+10
108	Rico Dowdle PIT	RB	135	-16	85	-23	74.8	-33
109	Isaiah Likely NYG	TE	115	-17	119	+10	136.7	+28
110	Chig Okonkwo WAS	TE	114	-17	153	+43	171.1	+61
111	T.J. Hockenson MIN	TE	114	-18	179	+68	167.9	+57
112	Jordan Addison MIN	WR	138	-19	107	-5	96.9	-15
113	AJ Barner SEA	TE	109	-22	199	+86	171.7	+59
114	KC Concepcion CLE	WR	134	-24	111	-3	118.7	+5
115	Stefon Diggs WAS	WR	133	-25	95	-20	92.9	-22
116	Cade Otton TB	TE	107	-25	234	+118	—	—
117	Jakobi Meyers JAX Q	WR	132	-26	106	-11	87.0	-30
118	Aaron Jones MIN	RB	125	-26	117	-1	—	—
119	Oronde Gadsden II LAC	TE	106	-26	209	+90	—	—
120	Khalil Shakir BUF Q	WR	131	-26	123	+3	102.4	-18
121	Josh Downs IND Q	WR	131	-27	87	-34	90.2	-31
122	Jerry Jeudy CLE	WR	130	-28	162	+40	129.5	+8
123	Sam Darnold SEA	QB	214	-28	136	+13	146.0	+23
124	Deebo Samuel Sr. SF	WR	129	-28	138	+14	110.8	-13
125	Tre Tucker LV	WR	129	-28	154	+29	131.0	+6
126	Jonathon Brooks CAR Q	RB	123	-29	88	-38	93.6	-32
127	Brenton Strange JAX	TE	102	-30	151	+24	164.5	+38
128	Romeo Doubs NE	WR	127	-31	128	0	108.6	-19
129	Pat Freiermuth PIT	TE	101	-31	224	+95	173.0	+44
130	Gunnar Helm TEN	TE	100	-32	207	+77	—	—
131	Woody Marks HOU	RB	119	-32	133	+2	140.3	+9
132	Chris Godwin Jr. TB	WR	125	-32	71	-61	78.9	-53
133	Baker Mayfield TB	QB	207	-35	120	-13	129.9	-3
134	Cam Ward TEN	QB	206	-36	149	+15	169.2	+35
135	J.K. Dobbins DEN	RB	115	-36	101	-34	88.3	-47
136	Kenyon Sadiq NYJ Q	TE	95	-36	210	+74	160.4	+24
137	Evan Engram DEN	TE	95	-37	249	+112	—	—
138	Blake Corum LA	RB	114	-38	109	-29	122.6	-15
139	Jacory Croskey-Merritt WAS Q	RB	113	-39	115	-24	114.9	-24
140	Xavier Worthy KC	WR	117	-40	131	-9	105.2	-35
141	Kyle Monangai CHI Q	RB	111	-40	121	-20	111.1	-30
142	Jayden Reed GB	WR	114	-43	102	-40	92.9	-49
143	Tyjae Spears TEN	RB	108	-43	137	-6	130.1	-13
144	Malik Washington MIA	WR	114	-44	184	+40	149.7	+6
145	MarShawn Lloyd GB	RB	108	-44	103	-42	130.5	-14
146	Mason Taylor NYJ	TE	88	-44	274	+128	—	—
147	Makai Lemon PHI	WR	114	-44	108	-39	126.6	-20
148	Rashid Shaheed SEA	WR	113	-44	141	-7	128.2	-20
149	Tyrone Tracy Jr. NYG Q	RB	107	-45	161	+12	156.3	+7
150	C.J. Stroud HOU	QB	197	-45	140	-10	159.2	+9
151	Mike Gesicki CIN	TE	87	-45	301	+150	—	—
152	Jordan Mason MIN	RB	105	-46	114	-38	114.5	-37
153	Theo Johnson NYG Q	TE	82	-50	284	+131	—	—
154	Aaron Rodgers PIT	QB	192	-50	202	+48	174.6	+21
155	Jalen Coker CAR	WR	107	-50	124	-31	121.3	-34
156	Keenan Allen IND i	WR	107	-51	191	+35	133.8	-22
157	Tyler Shough NO	QB	191	-51	126	-31	136.3	-21
158	Daniel Jones IND	QB	190	-51	142	-16	157.9	0
159	Alvin Kamara NO Q	RB	100	-51	157	-2	154.1	-5
160	Matthew Golden GB	WR	106	-51	125	-35	107.6	-52
161	Josh Jacobs GB EX	RB	100	-52	146	-15	43.2	-118
162	Dylan Sampson CLE	RB	100	-52	143	-19	160.6	-1
163	Tyler Allgeier ARI	RB	100	-52	135	-28	155.3	-8
164	Colby Parkinson LA	TE	80	-52	266	+102	—	—
165	Troy Franklin DEN	WR	104	-54	222	+57	186.8	+22
166	Jauan Jennings MIN	WR	103	-54	171	+5	144.8	-21
167	Terrance Ferguson LA Q	TE	77	-55	196	+29	164.0	-3
168	David Njoku LAC	TE	77	-55	250	+82	—	—
169	De'Zhaun Stribling SF Q	WR	102	-55	127	-42	126.6	-42
170	Bryce Young CAR	QB	185	-56	159	-11	165.5	-4
171	Geno Smith NYJ	QB	185	-57	214	+43	170.7	0
172	Greg Dulcich MIA	TE	74	-58	244	+72	165.0	-7
173	Malik Willis MIA	QB	180	-62	129	-44	160.4	-13
174	Omar Cooper Jr. NYJ	WR	95	-62	169	-5	161.0	-13
175	Jacoby Brissett ARI	QB	179	-62	185	+10	168.0	-7
176	Ray Davis BUF	RB	89	-63	182	+6	162.2	-14
177	Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX	RB	89	-63	139	-38	156.8	-20
178	Jake Tonges SF	TE	69	-63	306	+128	—	—
179	Denzel Boston CLE	WR	94	-63	147	-32	135.7	-43
180	Keaton Mitchell LAC Q	RB	87	-65	145	-35	158.3	-22
181	Adonai Mitchell NYJ	WR	93	-65	158	-23	162.0	-19
182	Kayshon Boutte HOU	WR	92	-65	163	-19	160.3	-22
183	Dontayvion Wicks PHI	WR	91	-66	176	-7	164.4	-19
184	Eli Stowers PHI Q	TE	65	-67	289	+105	—	—
185	Emmett Johnson KC	RB	85	-67	173	-12	155.9	-29
186	Darren Waller CAR	TE	65	-67	309	+123	—	—
187	Jordyn Tyson NO IR	WR	91	-67	134	-53	157.2	-30
188	Tre Harris LAC Q	WR	90	-68	170	-18	174.8	-13
189	Jalen Nailor LV	WR	89	-68	188	-1	155.7	-33
190	Jaylin Noel HOU Q	WR	89	-69	200	+10	175.7	-14
191	Darnell Washington PIT	TE	61	-71	315	+124	—	—
192	Brian Robinson ATL	RB	80	-72	172	-20	157.0	-35
193	Michael Mayer LV	TE	60	-72	320	+127	—	—
194	Ryan Flournoy DAL	WR	85	-73	178	-16	169.5	-24
195	Tank Bigsby PHI	RB	78	-73	160	-35	159.0	-36
196	Charlie Kolar LAC	TE	59	-73	326	+130	—	—
197	Travis Hunter JAX	WR	84	-73	192	-5	163.6	-33
198	Zach Charbonnet SEA PUP	RB	78	-74	150	-48	134.6	-63
199	Pat Bryant DEN	WR	84	-74	177	-22	—	—
200	Cole Kmet CHI	TE	56	-75	334	+134	—	—
201	Dawson Knox BUF	TE	56	-76	336	+135	—	—
202	Calvin Ridley TEN	WR	81	-77	201	-1	152.5	-49
203	Braelon Allen NYJ	RB	74	-77	167	-36	155.2	-48
204	Cooper Kupp SEA	WR	80	-77	219	+15	157.4	-47
205	Germie Bernard PIT	WR	79	-78	236	+31	—	—
206	Rashod Bateman BAL !	WR	79	-78	218	+12	156.5	-49
207	Elijah Higgins ARI	TE	52	-79	417	+210	—	—
208	Samaje Perine CIN	RB	72	-80	263	+55	136.8	-71
209	Tua Tagovailoa ATL	QB	162	-80	275	+66	—	—
210	Keon Coleman BUF Q	WR	78	-80	252	+42	172.3	-38
211	Jonah Coleman DEN	RB	71	-80	144	-67	151.7	-59
212	Isaac TeSlaa DET	WR	77	-81	220	+8	—	—
213	Noah Gray KC	TE	51	-81	353	+140	—	—
214	Chimere Dike TEN	WR	76	-82	257	+43	135.3	-79
215	Darnell Mooney NYG	WR	76	-82	221	+6	—	—
216	Kimani Vidal LAC	RB	69	-83	193	-23	159.2	-57
217	Noah Fant NO	TE	49	-83	375	+158	—	—
218	Jalen McMillan TB Q	WR	74	-83	166	-52	136.7	-81
219	Elic Ayomanor TEN	WR	74	-83	261	+42	—	—
220	Jonnu Smith GB	TE	48	-84	434	+214	—	—
221	Tommy Tremble CAR	TE	48	-84	387	+166	—	—
222	Eli Raridon NE	TE	47	-85	335	+113	—	—
223	Kaelon Black SF	RB	67	-85	233	+10	160.2	-63
224	Antonio Williams WAS	WR	73	-85	239	+15	—	—
225	Ja'Tavion Sanders CAR	TE	46	-85	357	+132	—	—
226	Ted Hurst III TB	WR	72	-86	247	+21	—	—
227	Tyler Higbee LA	TE	46	-86	339	+112	—	—
228	Justice Hill BAL	RB	66	-86	242	+14	168.8	-59
229	Elijah Arroyo SEA	TE	46	-86	329	+100	—	—
230	Malachi Fields NYG	WR	71	-86	229	-1	153.8	-76
231	Max Klare LA	TE	46	-86	343	+112	—	—
232	Devaughn Vele NO	WR	71	-87	255	+23	162.9	-69
233	Sean Tucker TB	RB	65	-87	203	-30	—	—
234	Tanner Koziol JAX	TE	44	-88	456	+222	—	—
235	Darius Slayton NYG	WR	70	-88	276	+41	175.6	-59
236	Jack Bech LV	WR	69	-88	251	+15	—	—
237	Jaylen Wright MIA	RB	63	-89	241	+4	—	—
238	Andrei Iosivas CIN	WR	69	-89	313	+75	—	—
239	Elijah Sarratt BAL	WR	68	-89	273	+34	—	—
240	Oscar Delp NO Q	TE	42	-90	318	+78	—	—
241	Tez Johnson TB	WR	67	-91	342	+101	—	—
242	Justin Joly MIA	TE	41	-91	374	+132	—	—
243	Isiah Pacheco DET IR	RB	60	-91	174	-69	156.4	-87
244	Xavier Hutchinson HOU	WR	66	-92	327	+83	187.1	-57
245	Daniel Bellinger TEN	TE	40	-92	412	+167	—	—
246	Ja'Kobi Lane BAL	WR	65	-92	215	-31	160.0	-86
247	DeMario Douglas NE	WR	65	-92	314	+67	—	—
248	Caleb Douglas MIA	WR	65	-92	237	-11	161.3	-87
249	Zachariah Branch ATL	WR	65	-92	226	-23	—	—
250	Xavier Legette CAR Q	WR	65	-92	279	+29	172.8	-77
251	Marvin Mims Jr. DEN Q	WR	65	-93	282	+31	—	—
252	Deshaun Watson CLE	QB	149	-93	286	+34	178.5	-73
253	Mitchell Evans CAR	TE	39	-93	411	+158	—	—
254	Mack Hollins NE	WR	64	-94	297	+43	—	—
255	Nate Boerkircher JAX	TE	38	-94	503	+248	—	—
256	Nicholas Singleton TEN	RB	57	-94	211	-45	159.0	-97
257	Najee Harris NYG	RB	57	-95	243	-14	155.6	-101
258	Malik Davis DAL	RB	57	-95	246	-12	177.0	-81
259	Mike Washington Jr. LV	RB	56	-95	148	-111	148.5	-110
260	Emanuel Wilson SEA Q	RB	56	-96	238	-22	—	—
261	Chris Bell MIA	WR	62	-96	232	-29	163.6	-97
262	Tyquan Thornton KC	WR	62	-96	269	+7	—	—
263	Tory Horton SEA Q	WR	62	-96	272	+9	—	—
264	Adam Trautman DEN	TE	36	-96	464	+200	—	—
265	Erick All CIN	TE	36	-96	341	+76	—	—
266	Seth McGowan IND	RB	55	-97	278	+12	—	—
267	Isaiah Davis NYJ Q	RB	55	-97	258	-9	—	—
268	Marlin Klein HOU	TE	35	-97	441	+173	—	—
269	Jackson Hawes BUF	TE	34	-97	459	+190	—	—
270	Isaiah Bond CLE Q	WR	60	-98	303	+33	—	—
271	Jahan Dotson ATL	WR	60	-98	322	+51	—	—
272	Ben Sinnott WAS Q	TE	34	-98	407	+135	—	—
273	Kaytron Allen WAS	RB	53	-98	231	-42	—	—
274	Josh Oliver MIN	TE	33	-99	490	+216	—	—
275	Austin Hooper ATL	TE	33	-99	421	+146	—	—
276	Tank Dell HOU IR	WR	58	-99	227	-49	162.1	-114
277	John Bates WAS	TE	32	-99	432	+155	—	—
278	Ty Johnson BUF Q	RB	51	-100	268	-10	168.2	-110
279	James Conner ARI IR	RB	51	-101	213	-66	160.7	-118
280	Brashard Smith KC	RB	51	-101	294	+14	—	—
281	Kyle Williams NE	WR	56	-101	290	+9	—	—
282	Olamide Zaccheaus ATL	WR	56	-102	344	+62	—	—
283	Chris Brooks GB	RB	50	-102	254	-29	—	—
284	Will Kacmarek MIA Q	TE	30	-102	498	+214	—	—
285	George Holani SEA	RB	49	-102	245	-40	—	—
286	Emari Demercado DAL	RB	49	-102	298	+12	—	—
287	Sam Roush CHI	TE	29	-103	479	+192	—	—
288	Ollie Gordon II MIA Q	RB	47	-104	262	-26	—	—
289	Eli Heidenreich PIT	RB	47	-104	364	+75	—	—
290	Luke Schoonmaker DAL	TE	27	-104	487	+197	—	—
291	Kendrick Bourne ARI	WR	53	-105	345	+54	—	—
292	Jalen Tolbert MIA	WR	53	-105	330	+38	—	—
293	John Metchie III CAR	WR	52	-105	379	+86	—	—
294	Devin Singletary NYG	RB	46	-106	299	+5	—	—
295	Luke Musgrave GB PUP	TE	26	-106	405	+110	—	—
296	Cade Stover HOU	TE	25	-106	501	+205	—	—
297	LeQuint Allen Jr. JAX Q	RB	44	-107	264	-33	—	—
298	Sione Vaki DET	RB	44	-107	400	+102	—	—
299	DJ Giddens IND Q	RB	44	-108	285	-14	—	—
300	KaVontae Turpin DAL	WR	50	-108	382	+82	—	—
301	Skyler Bell BUF	WR	49	-109	302	+1	—	—
302	Luke McCaffrey WAS	WR	49	-109	347	+45	—	—
303	Kirk Cousins LV	QB	132	-110	281	-22	—	—
304	Jordan James SF	RB	41	-110	267	-37	152.1	-152
305	Bryce Lance NO	WR	47	-111	328	+23	—	—
306	Kaleb Johnson GB	RB	41	-111	259	-47	—	—
307	Christian Kirk SF IR	WR	45	-112	277	-30	—	—
308	Demond Claiborne MIN	RB	39	-113	260	-48	—	—
309	Jaylin Lane WAS	WR	45	-113	390	+81	—	—
310	Treylon Burks WAS	WR	45	-113	354	+44	—	—
311	Konata Mumpfield LA	WR	45	-113	337	+26	—	—
312	Cyrus Allen KC	WR	44	-113	265	-47	149.2	-163
313	Devin Neal NO IR	RB	38	-114	293	-20	—	—
314	Kalif Raymond CHI	WR	43	-114	367	+53	—	—
315	Dyami Brown WAS	WR	43	-114	437	+122	—	—
316	Kendre Miller NO Q	RB	37	-115	283	-33	—	—
317	Jeremy McNichols WAS IR	RB	37	-115	433	+116	—	—
318	Jalen Royals KC	WR	42	-115	340	+22	—	—
319	Tutu Atwell LA	WR	42	-116	396	+77	—	—
320	Adam Randall BAL IR	RB	35	-117	295	-25	—	—
321	Bam Knight ARI	RB	35	-117	351	+30	—	—
322	Demarcus Robinson SF	WR	40	-117	386	+64	—	—
323	Odell Beckham Jr. NYG	WR	40	-118	392	+69	—	—
324	Brenen Thompson LAC Q	WR	40	-118	348	+24	—	—
325	Zavion Thomas CHI	WR	39	-118	366	+41	—	—
326	Roman Wilson PIT	WR	39	-119	361	+35	—	—
327	Ameer Abdullah JAX	RB	32	-119	467	+140	—	—
328	Elijah Moore PHI	WR	38	-120	455	+127	—	—
329	AJ Dillon CAR	RB	32	-120	486	+157	—	—
330	Trevor Etienne CAR IR	RB	32	-120	307	-23	—	—
331	Jordan Whittington LA	WR	37	-120	416	+85	—	—
332	Kevin Coleman Jr. MIA	WR	37	-121	368	+36	—	—
333	Devontez Walker BAL	WR	37	-121	409	+76	—	—
334	Rasheen Ali BAL	RB	31	-121	394	+60	—	—
335	Tahj Brooks CIN	RB	31	-121	323	-12	—	—
336	Raheim Sanders CLE	RB	30	-122	385	+49	—	—
337	CJ Daniels LA	WR	36	-122	398	+61	—	—
338	Dont'e Thornton Jr. LV IR	WR	36	-122	376	+38	—	—
339	Barion Brown NO	WR	35	-122	404	+65	—	—
340	Trey Benson ARI IR	RB	29	-122	308	-32	—	—
341	Colbie Young CIN	WR	35	-123	377	+36	—	—
342	Jacob Saylors DET	RB	29	-123	384	+42	—	—
343	Corey Kiner NE	RB	28	-124	448	+105	—	—
344	Roschon Johnson CHI	RB	28	-124	380	+36	—	—
345	Fernando Mendoza LV	QB	118	-124	256	-89	152.3	-193
346	Chris Brazzell II CAR IR	WR	34	-124	349	+3	—	—
347	Isaac Guerendo SF PUP	RB	28	-124	312	-35	—	—
348	Savion Williams GB IR	WR	33	-125	373	+25	—	—
349	Tai Felton MIN	WR	33	-125	428	+79	—	—
350	Malik Benson LV	WR	32	-125	362	+12	—	—
351	Will Shipley PHI	RB	26	-125	324	-27	—	—
352	Ashton Dulin IND	WR	32	-126	406	+54	—	—
353	Jimmy Horn Jr. CAR	WR	32	-126	504	+151	—	—
354	Jahdae Walker CHI	WR	31	-127	449	+95	—	—
355	Jacob Cowing SF	WR	31	-127	474	+119	—	—
356	Ronnie Rivers LA	RB	24	-127	451	+95	—	—
357	Hunter Luepke DAL	RB	24	-127	430	+73	—	—
358	Tyler Badie DEN	RB	24	-128	489	+131	—	—
359	Dylan Laube LV	RB	23	-129	429	+70	—	—
360	Tim Patrick NYJ	WR	29	-129	496	+136	—	—
361	Dohnte Meyers CIN	WR	28	-129	438	+77	—	—
362	Reggie Virgil ARI	WR	28	-130	484	+122	—	—
363	Deion Burks IND	WR	27	-130	447	+84	—	—
364	Josh Cameron JAX	WR	27	-131	482	+118	—	—
365	Jordan Watkins SF	WR	24	-133	457	+92	—	—
366	Jabari Small DET	RB	16	-135	500	+134	—	—
367	Julius Chestnut TEN	RB	16	-135	492	+125	—	—
368	Kyle Juszczyk SF Q	RB	14	-137	397	+29	—	—
369	Kene Nwangwu NYJ	RB	14	-138	505	+136	—	—
370	Chris Blair ATL	WR	18	-140	481	+111	—	—
371	Reggie Gilliam NE	RB	11	-140	476	+105	—	—
372	Shedeur Sanders CLE	QB	84	-157	292	-80	—	—
373	Michael Penix Jr. ATL Q	QB	82	-159	280	-93	—	—
374	Carson Beck ARI	QB	73	-168	331	-43	—	—
375	J.J. McCarthy MIN Q	QB	64	-178	338	-37	—	—
376	Justin Fields KC	QB	61	-181	363	-13	—	—
377	Mac Jones SF	QB	57	-185	350	-27	—	—
378	Ty Simpson LA	QB	55	-187	360	-18	—	—
379	Gardner Minshew ARI	QB	48	-193	466	+87	—	—
380	Marcus Mariota WAS Q	QB	45	-197	395	+15	—	—
381	Joe Flacco CIN	QB	41	-200	381	0	—	—
382	Jameis Winston NYG	QB	39	-202	383	+1	—	—
383	Anthony Richardson IND	QB	38	-203	370	-13	—	—
384	Cade Klubnik NYJ	QB	35	-206	402	+18	—	—
385	Riley Leonard IND	QB	31	-210	454	+69	—	—
386	Quinn Ewers JAX	QB	30	-211	472	+86	—	—
387	Taylen Green CLE	QB	28	-213	468	+81	—	—
388	Tyrod Taylor GB	QB	27	-214	491	+103	—	—
389	Trey Lance LAC	QB	22	-220	502	+113	—	—
390	Drew Allar PIT	QB	21	-220	478	+88	—	—
391	Tyson Bagent CHI	QB	20	-221	497	+106	—	—
392	Jalen Milroe SEA	QB	16	-226	480	+88	—	—

Sources

ECR: FantasyPros. ADP: Fantasy Football Calculator. Both are 12-team PPR.

Data saved September 2, 2026. Injury news isn’t updated live.

I propose we call this vibe modeling. ↩
I used walk-forward validation over 2022–2025. I trained separate gradient-boosted tree and extremely randomized tree ensembles for QB, RB, WR, and TE to predict season-total points under my league’s PPR scoring. The final predictions blend the model’s predictions with expert consensus rankings. Since the consensus is only an ordinal ranking, I convert positional ranks to point estimates using an isotonic regression fit on earlier seasons. The blend weights were also fit on earlier seasons.

Across the four validation seasons, mean absolute error was 43.04 points for the blend, 44.13 for consensus, and 44.45 for the model alone. That’s a 1.09-point reduction per player, or 2.47%. For 2025 alone, the blend’s MAE was 44.26 vs. 45.17 for consensus. The blend did slightly worse than consensus when evaluating starters. ↩
The real alpha in fantasy football tends to be how much time you spend working the waiver wire and making good trades, assuming the people in your league aren’t allergic to trading because of loss aversion. ↩
I was picking last (my favorite spot) in a 12-team snake.

1.12 Ashton Jeanty
2.1 De’Von Achane
3.12 Tetairoa McMillan
4.1 Zay Flowers
5.12 Jalen Hurts
6.1 Tyler Warren
7.12 RJ Harvey
8.1 DK Metcalf
9.12 Jordan Addison
10.1 Woody Marks
11.12 Khalil Shakir
12.1 Tyjae Spears
13.12 Denzel Boston
14.1 Malik Washington
15.12 Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST
16.1 Cameron Dicker ↩

Vibe-Coded Fantasy Football Projections

Starting lineup

Scoring

Footnotes